Why 🐱 ProfessionalTennisCircuit picked: Zverev weeks at No. 1 guaranteed calculation
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<!-- SC_OFF --><p>Not sure anyones looked into this yet, but I tried to determine how many weeks at No. 1 Zverev will likely get (at minimum).</p> <p>He's not 100% guaranteed to be YE#1 yet, since Alcaraz could theoretically take it, assuming Z flops at every single tournament and Alcaraz wins them all (including the ones he's not even signed up to play). But it's as close to certain as it get's without being actual, mathematical certainty.</p> <p>He is going to become No. 1 on November 16, when the 2025 ATP Finals points drop (they drop at the beginning of finals week, unlike other tournaments). He could also become No.1 one or two weeks sooner, after either Vienna or Paris (Nov. 2nd or Nov. 9th), depending on Shanghai, Vienna and Paris results.</p> <p>If he loses No. 1 after the AO (February 1st 2027), that would mean between 11 and 13 weeks @ No. 1 for him.</p> <p>However he may well keep the ranking beyond AO:</p> <p>Assuming a perfect finish to the year (+3,500 points), Alcaraz would finish the year on pretty much exactly 8k points (8,050 actually), same as Sinner (7,950). I'm assuming the following results for Z: Shanghai Semi (400), Vienna final (330), Paris Semi (400) and 2 Group wins at ATP Finals (400). In total 1,530, which puts him at 10,270 for the year. </p> <p>Last year, neither Sinner nor Alcaraz played the warm ups, I'm guessing it'll be the same here.</p> <p>At the AO, Sinner and Z are defending 800 each, while Alcaraz is defending 2000 and cannot improve. So even if Sinner wins and Zverev goes out R1, they'd be sitting at 9,150 and 9,450 respectively (Z also loses 30 points from before AO and gains 10 for R1 exit).</p> <p>After that the earliest possible date would be February 15th, after Dallas/Rotterdam (500) Sinner is unlikely to play that one. After Doha would mean February 22nd. Zverev is not defending any points in that time either. If Sinner hasn't overtaken him by February, it will not happen in March either, since he's defending the Sunshine Double (Z is defending 400 at each).</p> <p>From November 16 to the Monday after Miami Open will be 20 weeks at No. 1. That is what I'd guess is his minimum No. of weeks @ No. 1.</p> <p>In fact having played this through, I would say it's much more likely for Alcaraz to take No. 1 from Zverev before the French Open, rather than Sinner.</p> <p>With that it's also virtually certain that he will be the 90's player with the most weeks at No. 1, taking that from Medvedev as well who's currently (and probably eternally) at 16.</p> <!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Lord_GP340" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer ugc" target="_blank"> /u/Lord_GP340 </a> <br/> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/1wzx1vc/zverev_weeks_at_no_1_guaranteed_calculation/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer ugc" target="_blank">[link]</a> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/1wzx1vc/zverev_weeks_at_no_1_guaranteed_calculation/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer ugc" target="_blank">[comments]</a>